Learn: the economy explained

Plain-English guides to the ideas behind the numbers on this site, each with live readings from the latest data.

What is a recession, and who decides?: The official definition of a US recession, why "two quarters of falling GDP" is only a rule of thumb, and the signs that usually show up first.
The Sahm rule, explained: A simple test built from the unemployment rate that has flagged the start of every US recession since 1970, how it works, and where it can mislead.
How to read the yield curve: What the yield curve is, why an "inverted" curve has so often come before recessions, which spreads to watch, and why the signal is not infallible.
CPI, PCE and "core": the inflation measures explained: The two main US inflation measures, why they differ, what "core" leaves out, and which one the Federal Reserve targets.
What weekly jobless claims tell you: Initial and continuing claims for unemployment insurance are the fastest official read on layoffs. How to read them, and what counts as a warning.
Reading the monthly jobs report: Payrolls, the unemployment rate and revisions: what the US jobs report measures, why its two surveys can disagree, and how to read a single month.
Why oil prices matter for the economy: How crude oil prices reach petrol pumps, inflation figures and household budgets, why Brent and WTI differ, and why the US effect is more mixed than it used to be.
Interest rates and the Fed, in plain words: What the federal funds rate is, how the Federal Reserve's decisions travel through the economy, and what real yields and breakeven inflation tell you.
How the economy health score works: How Plain Vitals turns more than a hundred official statistics into twelve pillars and one plain-language reading, and how the recession watch is built.
Leading indicators: what turns before the economy does: Building permits, business orders, jobless claims, credit spreads and sentiment tend to move ahead of the wider economy. What each one signals and how reliable they are.