The US economy on October 25, 2026
Oil and trade widen the inflation-growth crosscurrents
The Trade balance goods and services deteriorated from -92826.0 to -105572.0, deepening the GDP drag and keeping the indicator at alert. Imports of goods and services accelerated year-on-year from 12.336 to 22.176, while exports also strengthened year-on-year, to 10.691 from 9.343.
WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil eased from their previous observations to 107.89 and 115.22, respectively, but both remain alerts. Regular gasoline retail price also eased, to 4.284 from 4.331. Import price index rose year-on-year from 6.738 to 8.097, adding to the inflation pressure.
Rates & Monetary remained tighter, with its score rising to 0.51 from 0.46. The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 5.0 from 4.96, and the 10-year TIPS real yield to 2.66 from 2.64—higher yields mean tighter financing conditions. Growth and inflation remain in the up quadrant; recession watch is low with no rules firing.
Next up: Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed manufacturing production releases on 2026-10-26, followed by durable goods and housing starts on 2026-10-27.
Written by an AI model from the data as of October 25, 2026. Every number in it (18) was checked against the data.